Argentina Under Milei: Recovery, Growth and International Business Prospects

Argentina’s recovery under Javier Milei presents international businesses with a serious opportunity to reassess the country. The IMF’s May 2026 assessment records real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2025, following a 1.3% contraction in 2024. That is a genuine economic rebound, rather than merely an improvement in financial-market sentiment. ^[1]

The outlook nevertheless requires discrimination. The latest market survey published by Argentina’s central bank on 4 September puts expected growth for 2026 at 2.1%, below earlier projections. The recovery is continuing in some areas, but it should not be described as an uninterrupted acceleration across the entire economy. ^[2]

For an international company, the relevant question is therefore not whether Argentina has become risk-free. It is whether a more open business environment, investment incentives and particular sector opportunities justify a carefully structured commercial commitment.

TOP LEGAL — THE CENTRAL DISTINCTION
A stronger national outlook can improve a project’s prospects. It cannot replace a viable business model, reliable counterparties, enforceable contracts or a workable route for receiving and transferring money.

1. The recovery in figures: actual results versus forecasts

The following indicators describe different periods and must not be treated as simultaneous measurements of the economy.

Sources: IMF, INDEC and BCRA. ^{[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]}

The difference between forecast vintages matters. The IMF’s May assessment projected 3.5% growth for 2026. The more recent REM survey’s 2.1% estimate is a forecast from participating analysts—not an actual GDP result or the BCRA’s own forecast. A business plan should not select the highest available projection and present it as settled fact. ^{[1] [2]}

There is also a crucial distinction between disinflation and falling prices. Annual inflation declined from 211.4% in December 2023 to 31.5% in December 2025, before standing at 33.5% in August 2026. Stabilisation has been substantial compared with the earlier crisis, but the path has not been uniformly downward. ^{[6] [4]}

For budgeting, slower inflation can make planning less difficult. It does not mean that payroll, rents, utilities or imported inputs have returned to their previous price levels.

2. What changed under Milei—and why businesses should care

The administration’s economic direction has centred on fiscal adjustment, deregulation and greater openness. The OECD’s April 2026 assessment identifies progress in simplifying product-market rules and import procedures, together with the lifting of most currency and capital controls in April 2025. It also stresses that significant administrative and trade barriers remain. ^[7]

Fiscal results are part of the change. The IMF reports primary fiscal surpluses of 1.8% of GDP in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. A primary surplus excludes interest payments: it is not evidence that public debt has disappeared or that refinancing needs have ended. ^[8]

The commercial implications are potentially important. More predictable administration can reduce the time spent managing approvals. Greater access to imported machinery can support modernisation. Fiscal credibility can help businesses consider longer planning horizons.

Those are economic mechanisms, not guarantees of outcomes. A company still needs to establish whether reforms have improved the actual process relevant to its products, payments and customers.

Nor should every improvement be attributed exclusively to one administration. A rebound after contraction, commodity conditions, existing investment programmes and company-level decisions all affect results. The prudent interpretation is that policy changes have altered the operating environment—not that they alone explain every increase in output.

3. The social recovery is important, but uneven

INDEC’s poverty series provides a more complete picture than either a celebratory or exclusively negative account. Poverty among persons in the surveyed urban agglomerations stood at 41.7% in the second half of 2023, increased to 52.9% in the first half of 2024, and subsequently fell to 28.2% in the second half of 2025. The initial deterioration therefore occurred during Milei’s first months in office; the later improvement should also be recognised. ^[5]

These figures do not establish that all households or sectors recovered equally. Recent reporting describes pressure on manufacturing and employment as domestic producers adjust to stronger import competition. ^[9]

For international businesses, this distinction affects market selection. An exporter supplying equipment to a funded energy project faces a different demand environment from a retailer depending on discretionary household spending.

The practical lesson is to research the customer segment—not simply apply the national growth rate to every sales forecast. Social conditions also matter to the durability of reform: a programme that generates investment without sufficiently broad improvements in employment and living standards may face greater resistance.

4. Where international business opportunities are emerging

Energy and the Vaca Muerta supply chain

Energy provides a concrete illustration of Argentina’s international business potential. Eni announced a joint development agreement with YPF and XRG for Argentina LNG in February 2026. YPF’s project website subsequently reported an August application for RIGI treatment for a project with a stated investment value of US$51 billion. These are development and application milestones, not proof that the entire amount has already been invested. ^{[10] [11]}

The potential commercial opportunity extends beyond owning production assets. An initial screening could examine engineering, industrial equipment, monitoring systems, maintenance, logistics and specialist environmental services.

A supplier should work backwards from the project: which contracts are funded, who awards them, what qualifications are required, and when will payment become due? A large investment announcement is not itself a purchase order.

Mining and related industrial services

The BCRA reports that mining and quarrying received US$1.181 billion in net FDI flows in the first quarter of 2026, the largest sectoral amount in that report. The category includes extractive activities and should not be read as a lithium-only or copper-only figure. ^[12]

For market-entry analysis, potential areas to examine include equipment servicing, water-management technology, technical software and processing infrastructure. Opportunities should be tested against the particular mineral, development stage, funding arrangements and permits—not against a general narrative about demand for critical minerals.

Agribusiness and productivity technology

New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade identifies agriculture, and equipment and specialised services supporting major investments, as relevant opportunities for foreign businesses in Argentina. ^[6]

A useful commercial approach is to focus on demonstrable productivity gains: reducing water consumption, improving storage, limiting losses, monitoring production or increasing processing efficiency. These are examples for assessment, not a claim that every such product already has a ready buyer.

For European suppliers, a proposal based on measurable operating savings may be more persuasive than one based solely on the prestige of imported technology.

Software and knowledge-based services

The IMF’s July 2026 commentary highlights Argentina’s knowledge-based services exports alongside energy, mining and agriculture. It reports annual exports of those services approaching US$10 billion. ^[13]

Possible business models include software development partnerships, industrial data services, engineering support and technology integration. Commercial evaluation should cover intellectual-property ownership, confidentiality, staffing continuity, data handling and the cost of delivering the service in the customer’s currency.

Infrastructure and services around major projects

A further possibility is to assess the services that enable the principal investment to operate: transport, warehousing, utilities, maintenance and specialist business support.

This is an investment hypothesis rather than evidence of an existing tender. Demand should be demonstrated through actual procurement plans and counterparties with both authority and capacity to contract.

5. RIGI: a significant framework for qualifying large investments

Argentina’s Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones, or RIGI, was created by Law 27,742. It covers qualifying large-scale projects in designated sectors and operates through eligible project vehicles, commonly referred to as VPUs. It is not an automatic incentive available to every newly incorporated company. ^[14]

The official framework also provides specific foreign-exchange benefits. None of these features should be described as a blanket exemption from Argentine taxation. ^{[15] [14]}

The application period was extended by one year from 8 July 2026, taking it into July 2027. The extension does not remove the need to prepare an eligible investment plan and obtain approval. ^[16]

A particularly important legal distinction concerns stability. Protection against more restrictive exchange regulations is not protection against movements in the exchange rate itself: Article 205 expressly excludes the exchange rate from that stability protection. ^[14]

TOP LEGAL — INCENTIVES ARE NOT COMPLETE RISK PROTECTION
Before relying on RIGI, identify the approved project, the beneficiary, the precise benefit and the continuing obligations. Model commercial risks separately from the legal protection offered by the regime.

6. Smaller businesses do not need to undertake a US$200 million project

The RIGI threshold is not a universal minimum for doing business in Argentina. A smaller company may instead evaluate a supply contract, distribution arrangement, technology partnership or local operating business.

There is also a distinct Régimen de Incentivo para Medianas Inversiones, or RIMI, regulated in 2026. Its standard minimum investment amounts vary by enterprise category: US$150,000 for microenterprises; US$600,000 for small enterprises; US$3.5 million for medium-sized enterprises in category 1; and US$9 million for category 2. These are category-dependent minimums—not an overall investment ceiling of US$9 million. ^[17]

ARCA’s implementing procedure addresses eligible investments, accelerated depreciation and VAT-credit recovery, and requires the relevant MiPyME certification and registration conditions. A foreign-owned enterprise should establish whether its actual structure qualifies rather than assume eligibility from the amount invested alone. ^[18]

For many international SMEs, the better starting question is commercial: can the business secure customers and operate profitably before committing substantial fixed capital? Incentives should improve an already credible project, not supply its only rationale.

7. Foreign exchange and profit repatriation: progress with conditions

Argentina’s payment environment has changed, but “all restrictions have disappeared” is not a safe working assumption.

The BCRA’s first-quarter 2026 FDI report records US$1.891 billion in distributed profits and dividends. It links this to rules permitting foreign-exchange market access for profits supported by closed, audited accounts for financial years beginning on or after 1 January 2025. This is a meaningful development, but it does not establish identical treatment for older accumulated profits or every payment category. ^[12]

Before making a commitment, obtain a transaction-specific assessment from the intended bank and advisers. Separate the ability to earn profits, the legal ability to declare a distribution, access to foreign currency, applicable withholding and the remittance documentation.

Contracts should also distinguish payment currency, settlement arrangements and responsibility for delays. A dollar-denominated invoice does not itself prove that the payer can obtain and transfer dollars on the contractual due date.

The aim is not to assume the worst. It is to ensure that the payment route works before a commercial problem develops.

8. EU–Mercosur: a practical opening for European companies

The EU–Mercosur Interim Trade Agreement entered provisional application on 1 May 2026, according to the European Commission. This is an operational trade development, not simply an announcement of future negotiations. Preferential treatment nevertheless depends on the agreement’s requirements, including rules of origin. ^[19]

For an Italian or other European exporter, the analysis should begin with the product’s tariff classification, origin, applicable tariff schedule and documentary requirements. Provisional application does not mean that every product immediately enters duty-free or that other import conditions disappear.

The commercial exercise is specific: calculate the landed cost of the actual product under the applicable rules, compare it with competing offers, and establish who carries customs and compliance responsibilities.

The agreement may strengthen a market-entry case. It should not be used as a substitute for that calculation. ^[19]

9. The legal work that should precede market entry

Choose the structure after defining the operation

Start by identifying who will contract, invoice, employ staff, hold inventory and assume operational risk. Then compare a distributor model, local subsidiary, branch or joint venture against those needs.

The assessment should cover registration, governance, taxation, employment, liability and exit arrangements. A structure convenient at incorporation may be unsuitable once the business acquires employees, premises or long-term obligations.

Treat the province and project location as material facts

Argentina’s Constitution recognises provincial original ownership of natural resources within their territories under Article 124. For extractive projects, the federal investment framework is therefore not the whole legal analysis. ^[20]

Due diligence should map the relevant national, provincial and local requirements, including land access, environmental matters, water, infrastructure and operating approvals. Do not infer a complete permission to operate from a federal incentive decision.

Assess the counterparty, contract and exit

Request evidence of ownership, authority to sign, financial standing and the status of any project approval relied upon. Distinguish the project sponsor from the entity that will actually owe payment.

Contract negotiations should address delivery milestones, acceptance, payment security, changes in law, termination, dispute resolution and enforcement. An arbitration clause should be assessed alongside its scope, likely costs and the location of recoverable assets; it is not a substitute for counterparty due diligence.

For cross-border groups, the analysis should also cover the investor’s home jurisdiction. Model the full tax position, management arrangements and distributions—not just a favourable Argentine incentive.

10. What could prevent the recovery from becoming durable growth?

External financing remains a material vulnerability. The IMF’s May review recorded a missed end-December 2025 net-reserve accumulation target and stressed the continuing need to rebuild buffers and refinance substantial foreign-currency obligations. Better fiscal figures should therefore not be confused with the disappearance of external financing risk. ^[8]

A commercial stress test should examine currency depreciation, financing costs, weaker commodity prices, customer-payment delays, infrastructure bottlenecks and changes in the regulatory environment. Different businesses will be exposed to these risks in different proportions.

There is also a timing distinction in the investment story. The IMF reported more than US$45 billion in approved large-investment projects by late July 2026. Approval values describe a prospective investment programme; they are not equivalent to expenditure already completed. ^[13]

By comparison, the BCRA measured US$1.794 billion in net FDI inflows in the first quarter of 2026. FDI statistics encompass capital contributions, reinvested earnings and related-company debt transactions; they should not be equated entirely with new cash subscriptions. These figures measure different things and should not be added together. ^[12]

11. Prospects: the next phase will be judged by execution

The following are planning scenarios, not probability-weighted forecasts.

A stronger outcome would involve investment approvals turning into funded construction and operating capacity, export earnings supporting external resilience, and gains spreading to smaller businesses and employment.

A more moderate outcome would combine successful export projects with weaker domestic demand. Foreign companies could still find attractive contracts, but sector and counterparty selection would remain decisive.

An adverse outcome could involve financing disruption, renewed exchange-rate pressure or policy uncertainty causing projects and customers to defer commitments. A company overdependent on one buyer or one expected regulatory benefit would be particularly exposed.

A practical response is staged entry: validate demand, test the payment route, contract with clear milestones and expand only after the operation demonstrates acceptable performance. This approach does not eliminate country risk, but it can prevent an optimistic national forecast from becoming an irreversible company-level commitment.

Frequently asked questions

Has Milei’s economic programme produced a recovery?

The reported 2025 GDP rebound supports that description. The more difficult question is how broad and durable the recovery becomes; the lower September 2026 growth forecast argues against assuming uninterrupted acceleration. ^{[1] [2]}

Is RIGI available to every foreign company?

No. It concerns qualifying large investments and eligible project vehicles, with approval and continuing obligations. Its general threshold must not be confused with a minimum for all commercial activity in Argentina. ^[14]

Can a foreign business assume unrestricted profit repatriation?

No. Assess the relevant profits, accounts, payment category and applicable banking rules. Improvements in access are not a universal confirmation for every remittance. ^[12]

Does the EU–Mercosur agreement eliminate all import duties immediately?

No. The applicable product schedule, origin requirements and customs procedures must be checked. Preferential access is a legal entitlement under defined conditions, not an automatic consequence of invoicing from Europe. ^[19]

Conclusion: a stronger case for selective engagement

The evidence supports neither dismissing Argentina’s recovery nor presenting the country as a completed economic transformation. Output has rebounded, the business framework has changed and substantial projects are being developed. At the same time, the latest forecasts, social conditions and financing requirements call for disciplined selection rather than indiscriminate optimism. ^{[3] [5] [7] [8] [13]}

For international businesses, the most persuasive opportunity is to solve a specific commercial problem: improve productivity, deliver specialised equipment, supply technology or support a funded project.

Argentina deserves renewed attention as an operating market. The defensible business decision is the one supported by customers, contracts, financing and legal analysis—not by political enthusiasm alone.

Discuss an international business project

A preliminary assessment with Studio Legale Internazionale Bertaggia can define the cross-border issues requiring investigation before a commitment. Any Argentine-law work should be scoped with appropriately qualified local advisers.

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This article provides general economic and legal information, not personalised investment, tax or legal advice. Incentive eligibility and transaction requirements require a case-specific review. Forecasts are not guarantees of growth or investment returns.

Sources and legal references

Figures and legal developments are attributed to their publication dates. Forecasts, investment applications and approved investment values are not treated as realised economic results.

[1] IMF — Second EFF review and 2026 Article IV assessment, 21 May 2026

[2] BCRA — August 2026 Market Expectations Survey, published 4 September 2026

[3] INDEC — Monthly estimator of economic activity, June 2026

[4] BCRA — Main indicators, August 2026 annual inflation (accessed 15 September 2026)

[5] INDEC — Poverty and extreme poverty in 31 urban agglomerations, second half of 2025

[6] New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade — Argentina economic and trade outlook, July 2026

[7] OECD — Argentina: Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness 2026

[8] IMF — Staff Country Report 26/105, May 2026; fiscal balance and external financing

[9] Financial Times — Milei’s great free trade experiment, 10 September 2026

[10] Eni — Joint development agreement with YPF and XRG, 12 February 2026

[11] YPF — Argentina LNG project; August 2026 RIGI application announcement

[12] BCRA — Foreign Direct Investment Report, first quarter of 2026, published 6 August 2026

[13] IMF — Argentina Looks Forward, 31 July 2026

[14] Argentina — Law 27,742, Title VII (RIGI), including Articles 173, 201 and 205

[15] Argentine Ministry of Economy — RIGI: scope and incentives

[16] Argentine Government — RIGI application-period extension, 19 February 2026

[17] Argentine Government — RIMI implementing framework, 13 April 2026

[18] ARCA — RIMI application procedure under General Resolution 5849/2026, 19 May 2026

[19] European Commission, DG TAXUD — Provisional application of EU–Mercosur ITA, 24 April 2026

[20] Constitution of Argentina — Article 124, provincial ownership of natural resources